In recent weeks, they had also become a thorn in the Kremlin's side as they refused to obey orders. The episode appears to have been resolved, but the fate of Prigozhin, a man who has been nicknamed "Putin's chef" for catering to the Russian president's inner circle, is uncertain. Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has been labeled a "dead man walking" after leading an attempted revolt against Vladimir Putin. The president of the Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, said on Monday that he would be "very surprised" if Prigozhin was still alive in a few months' time.

The Wagner private militia group, which Prigozhin founded, got within 200 kilometers of Moscow on the weekend before he decided to abort the mission. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this exposed "cracks" in the Kremlin that were not previously seen. Bremmer added that Putin has "imprisoned and assassinated people for far less" than what Prigozhin had done, and that it was "inconceivable to me" that he would be allowed to live any longer than is necessary.

The Kremlin responded by scrambling to protect Moscow, and a deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for Prigozhin to go into exile in exchange for calling off the insurrection. The incident is unprecedented new ground for Putin, who had until then been able to swiftly put out the occasional unarmed protest. It does, however, show a level of "unprecedented weakness" for the Russian president, according to Bremmer. The Wagner fighters have been a significant force in Putin's war against Ukraine, and had recently become a thorn in the Kremlin's side for refusing to obey orders.

The dispute between Prigozhin and the military establishment intensified due to the Kremlin's demand for all private mercenary forces to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1. As Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, pointed out, Prigozhin's objective was not to overthrow the government, but to draw attention to his demands for a role, security, and funding for his activities. The episode appears to have been resolved for now, but the fate of Prigozhin remains uncertain. Any hopes that Putin is on the brink of leaving power are unfounded, according to Bremmer, as there was not a single high-level defection from the Russian military, government, or among the oligarchs.