The United States is actively pushing for diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a move that experts say could leave Palestinians behind and have significant implications for the Middle East. President Joe Biden's administration views the Arab-Israeli conflict as one where the central force is not necessarily the Palestinians, but rather the inability of Arab states to accept Israel, according to Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Last week, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman outlined a complex plan that Biden is pursuing, which involves providing Saudi Arabia with NATO-like security guarantees and assisting the country in kick-starting a civilian nuclear program. While the details of a potential deal have not been confirmed, both the US and Israeli officials have expressed their desire for formal ties with Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia has not officially changed its policy of supporting the Arab Peace Initiative, which conditions recognition of Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state and a fair solution for Palestinian refugees.

Saudi officials have not ruled out the possibility of a deal with Israel, but they stress the importance of finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people and addressing their needs for dignity and justice. The potential agreement faces several obstacles, including public opinion in Saudi Arabia, which does not support recognizing Israel. Additionally, any treaty with Riyadh would require the approval of at least two-thirds of the US Senate, which could be challenging given the growing criticism of Saudi Arabia and reluctance for further US military involvement in the Middle East.

The Biden administration's push for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel comes at a time when President Biden is seeking foreign policy wins ahead of the 2024 US election season. Arab-Israeli normalization remains popular among both major political parties in Washington, DC. However, critics argue that such an agreement would do little to improve the situation for Palestinians or enhance regional security. It remains unclear how progress will be made on the Saudi-Israeli deal, but discussions between US and Saudi officials have been ongoing.

Saudi Arabia's demands for normalization are expansive, including a mutual security pact with the US and a civilian nuclear program. Any significant concessions to the Palestinians would be challenging for the current Israeli government, which includes ultranationalists committed to dismantling the Palestinian national idea. Despite the potential challenges, a diplomatic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be a significant victory for both countries. However, it remains to be seen whether the benefits of normalization would outweigh the potential consequences for Palestinians and regional stability.