Turkish President Erdogan's High-Stakes Visit to Russia: Can It Save the Collapsed Grain Deal?

Turkish President Erdogans High-Stakes Visit to Russia: Can It Save the Collapsed Grain Deal?
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit Russia soon to discuss the collapsed United Nations deal that allowed Black Sea exports of Ukrainian grain. The deal, brokered by the UN and Turkey, lasted for a year but ended last month after Russia's withdrawal. Turkey is now seeking to convince Russia to return to the agreement, which resulted in the shipment of tens of millions of tons of grain through Odesa's seaports. Since the collapse of the grain-export deal, Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian ports with missiles and kamikaze drones. Erdogan's visit to Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi is expected to lead to new developments and potentially reach new stages regarding the grain deal.

While the exact date of the meeting between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin is yet to be confirmed, Bloomberg reported that it could take place on September 8. The main focus of the meeting is to avert a looming food crisis caused by the breakdown of the agreement. Erdogan has used his strong relations with both Moscow and Kyiv to facilitate peace talks between the two sides. This visit to Russia follows Erdogan's dispatch of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Kyiv, where he urged Ukraine to abandon its attempts to set up a new route for grain shipments without Russia's involvement. Moscow has warned that any ships in the Black Sea may be considered as military targets. The collapsed agreement had initially brought down global food prices, alleviating starvation in some parts of Africa and the Middle East.

Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters, and the initial deal benefited both countries' agricultural exports. However, Russia cited non-compliance with provisions aimed at easing its own agricultural exports as the reason for its withdrawal from the agreement, leading to the current escalation in tensions. Ukraine, now reliant on land routes and a shallow river port, has attempted to find alternative routes for grain shipments, including a newly established route from a port in Odesa to Istanbul.

However, Turkish officials argue that this alternative route is too dangerous. Fidan is scheduled to visit Moscow in the coming days to further address the issue. The ongoing negotiations between Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine are crucial in resolving the grain export crisis and avoiding a food shortage. As Erdogan prepares to meet with Putin, the international community awaits the outcome of their discussions as it will have far-reaching implications for global food security.


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