NATO Summit in Lithuania: Deterring Russian Aggression and Strengthening Ukraine

NATO Summit in Lithuania: Deterring Russian Aggression and Strengthening Ukraine
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Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are gathering in Lithuania for a critical summit. The 31 allies seek to demonstrate their commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight against Russian aggression.

They also hope to reach a consensus on the issue of Ukraine's future membership in the alliance. The meeting was boosted by the news of Turkey dropping its objections to the application of Sweden joining NATO. The two countries have been able to work together to address Turkey's security concerns.

At the summit, NATO leaders are expected to agree on new plans to protect the alliance against potential Russian aggression. They will also likely to increase their financial commitment, making their 2% target for spending on defense a minimum figure.

The main objective of the meeting is to make Russian President Vladimir Putin doubt his belief that he can outwait the West. To do so, some allies will offer Ukraine new security guarantees and additional weapons and ammunition.

The language of the final communiqué is yet to be determined, but NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed confidence that the alliance will show unity and deliver a strong message on Ukraine. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky wants NATO to state explicitly the steps and timeline for Ukrainian membership in the alliance.

But some members are reluctant to do so, as it could give Russia an incentive to escalate and prolong the war. At the summit, the US and Germany welcomed the announcement of Turkey and Sweden working together to address Turkey's security concerns.

NATO is also expected to upgrade the Ukraine NATO Commission to a Ukraine NATO Council. This will give Ukraine the ability to summon meetings of the alliance as an equal partner. The US President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet Mr. Zelensky, and is expected to offer Ukraine the same military support his country gives to Israel.

The alliance is not able to formally invite Ukraine to join while the fighting is ongoing. To avoid this, Ukraine wants a clear promise of post-war membership with a timeline, so it can be certain of the security guarantee of NATO’s nuclear umbrella.

This could involve shortening the membership application plan, known as the MAP, and making clearer the progress Ukraine has made towards meeting NATO’s standards. The decision of how much to promise Ukraine is dividing the alliance.

Some nations want to provide as much clarity as possible, while others are more cautious and want Ukraine to do more to tackle corruption and strengthen their judiciary. The US and Germany also worry about getting dragged into open conflict with Russia.

It remains to be seen whether NATO will be able to reach a consensus on Ukraine's ambitions and make a sufficient commitment to satisfy Kyiv.


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