The long reign of Alexander Lukashenko as the President of Belarus has been a contentious one, with the government of the country becoming increasingly dependent on Russia for political and economic support. This was highlighted in February 2022, when Russia was allowed to use Belarus as a staging ground for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

However, in a rare turn of events, Mr. Lukashenko was recently praised for his role as a mediator and negotiator between Russia and Belarusian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin. It was initially believed that negotiations were impossible, as Mr. Prigozhin refused to speak with anyone at the time, but Mr. Lukashenko managed to get him to answer the phone.

The conversation between the two was reportedly “very difficult”, with Vadim Gigin, a Belarusian government propagandist, describing it as “masculine” and “blurting out vulgar things that would make any mother cry”. Ultimately, Mr. Prigozhin backed down, and Mr. Lukashenko emerged victorious, as it exposed the weakness of the Russian system in the eyes of both the international community and President Putin himself. The victory for Mr. Lukashenko has come at a cost, however, with Belarus becoming a vassal state of Russia in recent years.

This has been especially evident since Mr. Lukashenko received Moscow’s backing when he violently suppressed the democracy movement of 2020, which had challenged his claim of a landslide election victory. Overall, the success of Mr. Lukashenko as a mediator and negotiator between Russia and Belarusian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian system. This is a rare role reversal at a time when the dictator has become overwhelmingly dependent on Russia, both politically and economically.