In a surprising turn of events, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, faced a significant setback in their assessment of the recent Israel attack. The incident, which occurred on October 7th 2023, involved a series of strategic airstrikes on Israel, resulting in widespread global concern.

"Five Blind Eyes" found traces of Indian hand in the #Canadakilling. But could not figure out thousands of #rockets amassed by Hamas to terrorise people in the middle east. Is this selective or were they just blind sided. And #Mossad what happened to you? https://t.co/VePeWlt8q8 pic.twitter.com/oHF5J4Dgdi

— Rohit Gandhi (@rohitgandhi_) October 17, 2023

Despite their reputation for robust intelligence capabilities, the Five Eyes alliance failed to accurately predict, analyze, and respond to the Israel attack. Initial reports suggest a lapse in real-time intelligence gathering and analysis, raising questions about the effectiveness of their collaborative efforts.

But what has also surprised many is when the five eyes shared information with the Canadian government that it has information about India's hand in the killing of a declared Indian origin terrorist.

Israeli Failure

Israel, known for its highly sophisticated intelligence capabilities, was taken by surprise when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on multiple Israeli towns and army bases. The question arises as to why Israel's intelligence failed to piece together clues about this large-scale plot. While Israeli intelligence did detect some suspicious activity on Hamas militant networks, it wasn't acted upon or fully understood. Similar to the U.S. before the 9/11 attacks, intelligence analysis involves putting together thousands of intelligence pieces to make actionable judgments for policymakers.

Proximity but lack of human intelligence

The Hamas attack required careful planning and likely involved the support of Iran. It is surprising that Israel, being in close proximity to Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, did not have better insight into the plot. Some Israeli officials believed that recent counterterrorism operations had deterred Hamas and that the group lacked the capability for such a large-scale attack. Israel's intelligence system parallels that of the U.S., with several agencies responsible for different aspects of intelligence gathering. These include Shin Bet for domestic security, Mossad for foreign security, and the military intelligence agency. Israel relies on various sources such as human intelligence, signals intelligence, imagery intelligence, and open-source intelligence.

Israeli Intelligence setup may be outdated

In recent years, there has been a shift towards using more publicly available intelligence. Unlike the U.S., Israel does not have an overall intelligence coordinator. The U.S. established the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2004 after the 9/11 Commission found that intelligence efforts were fragmented across different agencies. Israel may consider implementing a comprehensive intelligence coordinator in the future to avoid similar challenges. The U.S. and Israel have a strong bilateral intelligence partnership, but it is not part of larger international intelligence sharing groups. However, the U.S. may have shifted its intelligence priorities to other parts of the world, resulting in a lack of significant intelligence on the Hamas plot.

Human Int

In the past, failures were attributed to factors like a double agent misinforming the military or lack of intelligence coordination. In South Korea, intelligence officials have emphasized the importance of humint (human intelligence) despite advancements in technological intelligence gathering capabilities. The recent Hamas attack on Israel serves as a reminder of the need to strengthen humint capabilities, particularly against North Korea. The South Korean government plans to inspect and enhance humint, focusing on key North Korean missile launch sites and North Korean allies such as Iran. Building an effective humint network takes time, and it is risky to make changes or neglect humint efforts due to government changes or attempts to strengthen cooperation with North Korea.

It is a matter of focus

Therefore, the failure of the Israeli intelligence agency to detect the threat not only jeopardises the safety of the country but brings to light the dismissive or shifting of priorities of “Five Eyes”, one of the most acclaimed intelligence alliance, since it was unable to detect Hamas’ intentions and even when warned by Egypt, dismissed the threats. Whether this is a result of lack of information or a shift in the preferences is something that has been asked a lot recently. But the point that it all boils down to is that if “Five Eyes” can find traces of an Indian hand related to the India-Canada conflict, how could it not figure out that Hamas intended to attack and was collecting thousands of rockets. Were they blindsided or was Hamas’ not amongst the concerns they held.