On Tuesday, envoys from the European Union's 27 member countries will convene to discuss the possibility of initiating membership talks with Ukraine. However, this decision could be hindered by Hungary's threat to block the discussions and by other member states imposing additional conditions. The meeting serves as a precursor to the EU leaders' summit on December 14-15, during which the integration prospects for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia will be deliberated. The European Commission has proposed that negotiations with Ukraine commence in March or after the country fulfills certain conditions.

This initiation of talks would be a significant milestone for Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that has been grappling with a Russian military invasion for nearly two years. In addition to the discussion on membership talks, the meeting on Tuesday will also assess a draft agreement for the summit. One such proposal involves providing $54.10 billion in budget support to Ukraine until 2027. While no final decisions will be made at this stage, it will offer some insight into the likelihood of the summit granting Ukraine the green light.

Although the initial draft, dated December 4, states that accession negotiations should begin with Ukraine, Moldova, and the conferral of EU candidate status upon Georgia, these decisions require unanimous agreement from all 27 member states. Hungary has indicated that it may block Ukraine's accession talks, asserting that the country has not yet met the necessary conditions due to its ongoing conflict, dependence on foreign aid, corruption levels, and territorial occupation. Efforts have been made to sway Hungary's position by unlocking EU aid to the country, which had been suspended over concerns regarding the rule of law and corruption.

European Council President Charles Michel also traveled to Budapest to garner Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's support for Ukraine, but it remains unclear if any progress was made. Complicating matters further, some EU countries are demanding that the summit advance the EU prospects for Georgia and Bosnia in exchange for their backing of Ukraine. These dynamics create a challenging situation, making it difficult to secure unanimous agreement among all member states regarding the launch of Ukraine's membership talks. As the meeting begins, all eyes are on the discussions that will shape the future integration prospects for Ukraine and the other countries involved. The decisions made in the coming days will have a profound impact on the region and its relationship with the EU.