As fighting between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas continues to escalate, concerns are growing about the potential for the conflict to spill over into the wider region. Israel's recent military assault on the Gaza Strip, in response to Hamas' attack on southern Israel, has prompted Lebanon's Hezbollah to launch its own cross-border strikes. However, both sides have avoided direct clashes and incursions that could lead to a serious escalation. While there is little appetite for war in Lebanon, concerns remain about the possibility of a full-scale conflict involving Hezbollah.

As a more powerful force than Hamas, Hezbollah has access to sophisticated drone and missile technology supplied by Iran, and a conflict with Israel would likely be much more destructive. The Israeli Defense Forces have responded to Hezbollah's attacks with air, drone, and artillery strikes on southern Lebanon, leading to casualties on both sides. Hezbollah's hesitation to enter a full-blown war is partly due to sustained Western military and diplomatic pressure. The US has stationed two strike carrier groups and a nuclear submarine in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf to deter escalation by Hezbollah and other groups sympathetic to Hamas.

Despite the pressure, the feuding factions within Hezbollah face a difficult decision. They must decide whether to intervene to save Hamas or watch as the Gaza leg of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance is dismantled. Many analysts believe that Hezbollah and Iran would prefer to avoid a larger direct confrontation with Israel, particularly considering their role as the first line of deterrence and defense for the Iranian regime and its nuclear program. However, as the IDF continues to encircle the last holdouts of Hamas in Gaza and strike targets within Lebanon and Syria, the likelihood of a regional flare-up remains strong.

Hezbollah has massed its elite Radwan fighting force on the border and has access to advanced weaponry, including rockets capable of inflicting severe damage on Israeli military outposts. Israel has warned that if the conflict escalates, it will turn southern Lebanon into a war zone, just as it has done with Gaza. The Israeli government aims to pressure countries to understand that a Hezbollah presence on its borders is no longer acceptable. Israel has deployed tens of thousands of soldiers along the northern border and transformed border communities into military bases. While Israel would prefer not to fight a war on two fronts, it may have to impose a new reality when it comes to Hezbollah once it has finished dealing with Hamas.

However, not all analysts are convinced that Israel has the means, will, or international backing to mount a successful military campaign against Hezbollah. A full-scale war with Lebanon would burden Israel economically and psychologically, and could have devastating consequences. The war in Gaza has already shattered Israeli self-perception and the belief that the Israeli army abides by international law and humanitarian rules. The majority of casualties in Israel and Gaza have been civilians, further diminishing public support for the conflict. The people of Gaza are running out of time and options, as Israel's war against Hamas continues to devastate the region. The UN estimates that 1.9 million of Gaza's 2.4 million people have been displaced, and aid delivery is insufficient to meet the growing needs of the population. The Israeli army's recent actions in targeting hospitals and