A panel of judges on Friday voted to render far-right former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible to run for office again, likely erasing any chance of him regaining power. The decision will forbid Bolsonaro from running until 2030, once all judges have voted. Four of the seven judges on the nation's highest electoral court agreed that Bolsonaro abused his authority by using government communication channels to promote his campaign and casting unfounded doubts on the country's electronic voting system. “This decision will end Mr. Bolsonaro's chances of being president again, and he knows it,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.

The case focused on a July 18, 2022, meeting where Bolsonaro used government staffers, the state television channel and the presidential palace in Brasilia to tell foreign ambassadors that the country's voting system was rigged. “Bolsonaro abused the powers of his office by calling the meeting, using government staffers and buildings with an electoral objective, and mixing the country's interests with those of his campaign,” said Márlon Reis, an electoral law expert. Bolsonaro will be able to appeal to the Supreme Court, and he also faces other legal troubles, including criminal investigations. He spoke defiantly to reporters on Thursday, asking “What crime have I done against democracy?” The ruling will remove Bolsonaro from the 2024 and 2028 municipal elections as well as the 2026 general elections.

Future criminal convictions could extend his ban by years and subject him to imprisonment. Former President Fernando Collor de Mello and current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were declared ineligible in the past, but Bolsonaro's case marks the first time a president has been suspended for election violations rather than a criminal offense. Speaking before the court's vote, lawmaker Carlos Jordy, a staunch Bolsonaro ally, said the former president still expected “a drastic change” from the court. However, Jordy said he was already contemplating a future without Bolsonaro as the standard-bearer of right-wing Brazilian politics.

Bolsonaro holds a ceremonial leadership role within his Liberal Party and has traveled around Brazil criticising Lula, who won last October's election with the narrowest margin in over three decades. His supporters showed their continued support this week with contributions to help him pay 1.1 million reais (about $230,000) in fines. However, engagement pales in comparison to the levels seen ahead of last year's election. Marie Santini, coordinator of NetLab, a research group that monitors social media, said Bolsonaro's base online has claimed he is a victim of an unfair judicial system.

Though Bolsonaro's endorsement will carry significant heft, political analyst Thomas Traumann said the former president's decision to decamp to Florida for several months at the start of Lula's term weakened him. That is reflected by the limited right-wing outrage on social media and no sign of protests. “The leader of the opposition is clearly not Bolsonaro," Traumann said.