IRAN, April 10, 2026

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has signalled a tougher stance on the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, warning that Tehran will push its control over the vital waterway to a "new stage" even as a fragile ceasefire with the US and Israel remains under strain. Khamenei declared that Iran would not let the US and Israel go "unpunished for their aggression" and would seek compensation for wartime losses. This statement comes as the US and Israel have been accused of failing to uphold commitments to allow oil shipments through the strait, warning of supply shocks and rising energy prices.

The Iranian Leader's Warning

Khamenei's statement, read out on state television, framed the move as part of Iran's broader strategy during the fragile ceasefire period. "Today, and up to this point, it can boldly be said that you, the heroic nation of Iran, have been the definitive victor in this arena," he said. Khamenei said this to rally the Iranian people and armed forces, emphasizing their resilience and victories in the face of aggression. He also urged citizens to continue mobilising, asking people to form "human defence chains" and maintain pressure during negotiations. "Your cries in the squares are effective in the outcome of the negotiations," he added. Khamenei said this to encourage citizens to remain politically active and influential in the outcome of the negotiations.

The US and Israeli Response

US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of failing to uphold commitments to allow oil shipments through the strait, warning of supply shocks and rising energy prices. Trump remains "optimistic" about a peace deal, and has urged Israel to scale down its attacks on Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorised direct ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon, focused on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon. However, he confirmed there was "no [present] ceasefire", and Israel would continue striking Hezbollah with "full force". Netanyahu made this statement to signal Israel's commitment to defending itself against Hezbollah's attacks.

The Regional Implications

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of tensions, with its disruption triggering fears of supply shocks and rising energy prices. Iran's new phase of management for the strait could further complicate diplomacy and escalate tensions with the US and Israel. According to Khamenei, Iran did not seek war but would not "renounce our legitimate rights under any circumstances," even as it engages in talks with Washington. Khamenei said this to emphasize Iran's commitment to its national interests and its refusal to compromise on its rights. The statement coincided with commemorations marking 40 days since the death of Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli strikes at the start of the war.

The Economic Stakes

The fragile ceasefire and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have significant economic implications. The narrow waterway is a key global oil route, and its disruption has triggered fears of supply shocks and rising energy prices. According to reports, thousands of people gathered across cities in Iran to commemorate the 40th day since the death of Ali Khamenei, demonstrating the ongoing tensions and instability in the region. The economic cost of the conflict is already being felt, with oil prices rising and trade disrupted. The situation remains volatile, with the potential for further escalation and economic consequences.

The Path Forward

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with the fragile ceasefire and escalating tensions between Iran, the US, and Israel. Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation to peace talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan's capital Islamabad on Saturday. European leaders have insisted Lebanon be included in the two-week ceasefire deal, after Israel launched record strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing hundreds. The path forward is unclear, with multiple parties involved and competing interests at play. The next few days will be essential in determining the outcome of the negotiations and the future of the region.