Ukraine's Ambition for NATO Membership and Its Impact on the War

Ukraine's Ambition for NATO Membership and Its Impact on the War Ukraine's ambition to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been a driving force in the country's diplomatic efforts since the beginning of the war with Russia in 2014. But while NATO allies have voiced their support of Ukraine's entry into the alliance, they remain reluctant to set a timeline for its accession. This has led to understandable frustration in Kyiv, with President Volodymyr Zelensky calling the lack of a clear timeline “absurd”.

At the NATO summit in Vilnius, Ukraine's bid for membership has been a major topic of conversation. The alliance has recognized Kyiv's need to move forward faster and has shortened the application process to reflect this. NATO has also agreed to create a new NATO-Ukraine Council, which will give Ukraine the right to summon meetings of the whole alliance. Despite these measures, the lack of a timeline for Ukraine's membership has caused tension between Kyiv and NATO allies. 

As Ukraine cannot join the alliance while at war with Russia, many member states fear that near-automatic membership for Ukraine could give Russia an incentive to both escalate and prolong the war. To counter this, NATO is now looking for ways to provide Ukraine with long-term security guarantees as an alternative to early membership.

Turkey's decision to drop its opposition to Sweden joining NATO has been welcomed by members, and both countries have announced their intention to join the alliance after Russia invaded Ukraine. The summit also saw the announcement of a number of military packages for Ukraine, including advanced jets and the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly US-made F-16 fighter jets. However, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has warned that Moscow would be forced to use “similar” weapons if the US supplied controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine. Rights groups have already reported the use of cluster munitions by both Russia and Ukraine during the war, and the US’s involvement in supplying Ukraine with more advanced weapons could further escalate the situation.

The Vilnius summit has been the latest step in Ukraine's difficult journey for NATO membership. While the alliance has voiced its support of Kyiv's ambitions and agreed to a number of measures, the lack of a timeline has led to understandable frustration in Kyiv. As the war with Russia continues, the focus now will move to what long-term security guarantees NATO members will offer Ukraine as an alternative to early membership.