Thailand’s Election Commission, Constitutional Court and Uncertain Political Future

The Thai Election Commission’s Wednesday announcement of evidence that Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat has violated election law has raised doubts about his bid to become the next prime minister and further clouded the country’s political future.

The commission’s request that the Constitutional Court order Pita to be suspended as a member of Parliament until a ruling is issued has further complicated matters for the progressive reformist, who has strong backing among young voters, and his party.

The allegation involves Pita’s alleged undeclared ownership of media company shares, which are banned for lawmakers. Separately, the court has accepted a petition against Move Forward and Pita concerning their campaign promise to amend Thailand’s harsh lese majeste law, which mandates a three to 15 year prison term for defaming the king, his immediate family, or the regent.

The court could order the accused to cease activities related to their proposed amendment if they agree that it constitutes trying to overthrow the constitutional monarchy, with the possibility of prosecution if they continue.

The Move Forward Party, with a progressive reformist platform, swept to a surprise first-place finish in May’s general election, capturing 151 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives and the most popular votes.

It has assembled an eight-party, 311-seat coalition with which it had planned to take power. However, Pita’s path to power is difficult because he must win 376 votes in a joint session of the House and the conservative, 250-seat, non-elected Senate.

The Senate largely represents Thailand’s traditional ruling establishment, which suspects Move Forward’s proposals for minor reforms of the monarchy endanger the royal institution, which they consider to be the center of Thais’ national identity.

The Election Commission’s decision has sparked controversy with Move Forward alleging its members may have engaged in malfeasance, or carrying out duties in a wrongful manner.

There have been fears since the election that Thailand’s conservative ruling establishment would use what its political opponents consider to be dirty tricks to hang onto power. For a decade-and-a-half, it has repeatedly used the courts and supposedly independent state agencies such as the Election Commission to issue controversial rulings to cripple or sink political opponents.

The Thai Election Commission’s referral of the shareholding case and the Constitutional Court’s acceptance of the petition against Move Forward and Pita has created a political climate of uncertainty in Thailand.

The Election Commission’s decision will likely be felt by voters and the political landscape for some time to come, leaving the future of the progressive reformist and his party uncertain.