Surprise Leader Emerges in Maldives Election, Sets Stage for High-Stakes Run-off Vote

The Maldives is headed for a run-off vote after the opposition candidate, Mohamed Muizzu, took a surprise lead over President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih but fell short of an outright majority in a closely contested presidential election. The election, which took place on Saturday, is being closely watched by regional powers India and China, both of whom are vying for influence in the Indian Ocean archipelago state.

Muizzu, the mayor of the capital Male, won 46 percent of the vote, while Solih had 39 percent. Neither candidate cleared the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a second round. Muizzu campaigned on the promise of limiting India's presence in the Maldives, including expelling a small group of Indian military personnel stationed in the country.

His Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM)-led coalition had drawn the Maldives closer to China during its time in power from 2013-2018, signing onto Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and obtaining millions of dollars in loans for infrastructure projects. On the other hand, Solih championed an "India-first" policy and secured funding from India for infrastructure projects. The run-off between Muizzu and Solih is expected to take place on September 30.