Sunak's Bold Promises and Uphill Battle: Can the Tories Secure a Sixth Consecutive Term?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has rallied his ruling Conservatives for the upcoming general election, positioning them as a force for change despite their 13-year tenure and growing disaffection among voters. In a speech to the party's annual conference, Sunak promised that the Tories would break the mold of the last 30 years of government. He stated that they would be bold, radical, and willing to face resistance in order to address the country's needs. Sunak's speech, which included major policy announcements such as the cancellation of a high-speed rail project, effectively marks the beginning of the election campaign.

The Conservatives have been attempting to distance themselves from the main opposition Labour party during the conference, particularly by emphasizing culture war issues such as the environment and trans rights. However, recent opinion polls indicate that the Tories face an uphill battle in securing a sixth consecutive term in office. A new poll puts Labour ahead by 20 percentage points, with Sunak trailing Labour leader Keir Starmer in personal popularity by 12 points.

Sunak, who became Tory leader last October, must call an election by January 2025 at the latest. Speculation is rife about when he will seek a mandate from the wider electorate, as he grapples with high inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, and industrial unrest. In his speech, Sunak confirmed rumors that he would cancel the second leg of the HS2 rail project, redirecting the funding to new transport projects across the country. While Sunak's speech was well-received among party members at the conference, experts caution that winning over voters outside the hall will be the real challenge.

The Conservatives, who have been in power since 2010, will need to overcome voter apathy and the damaging periods of turmoil experienced under previous leaders, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. Three upcoming by-elections may provide a glimpse into the likely outcome of the next general election, with the Tories at risk of losing all three, despite winning two of them in 2019. In the face of a rejuvenated Labour Party, the Tories are running out of room, according to experts. The most likely outcome, they suggest, is a significant election defeat. Critics argue that the Conservatives' agenda of talking about long-term decisions while engaging in easy choices to appease the party base lacks coherence. With Labour getting its act together, the Conservatives face an uphill battle in the next election.