Opposition Forces Capture Myanmar Town in Fierce Battle Against Military - Analysts Warn Retaining Control Could Be Challenging

 Opposition forces in Myanmar have successfully captured the town of Kawlin, a district administrative headquarters, after a fierce battle against the military, the shadow government, and local media reported on Tuesday. The National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow government formed by remnants of the deposed administration of Aung San Suu Kyi, celebrated the victory, although analysts warned that holding onto the town may prove challenging. Kawlin, with a population of approximately 25,000, was taken over by the opposition troops after overwhelming junta soldiers on Monday.

The NUG's defense ministry released a video showing soldiers raising the flag of resistance groups aligned with the shadow government. While the junta spokesman did not respond to Reuters' request for comment, a small group of junta soldiers reportedly surrendered following the intense fighting. However, Richard Horsey, senior advisor for Myanmar at the International Crisis Group, cautioned that maintaining control over Kawlin could be difficult for the opposition forces. A resident of Kawlin, who fled the town due to the violent clashes, revealed that almost everyone had left for safety reasons, with reports of houses being hit and no way to stay safely.

The NUG announced that resistance troops had taken control of key establishments in Kawlin, including the police station, district administrative office, and bank. In a separate offensive, the NUG and its allies claimed to have seized another town in Sagaing division, bordering India. The armed conflict in Myanmar has escalated significantly since the 2021 coup that ousted the democratically elected government, with opposition forces, including ethnic minority armies, launching fresh attacks against the military. These attacks have further aggravated the violence, prompting the military to respond with major offensives, involving ground troops, artillery, and air strikes. The non-profit International Crisis Group and rights groups have accused the military of committing atrocities against civilians, while the junta claims to be fighting "terrorists" and has disregarded international calls for a ceasefire.