Islamic State Maintains Substantial Presence in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, UN Experts Warn

The United Nations experts monitoring sanctions against the Islamic State (IS) group have revealed in a report that the terrorist organization still maintains a substantial presence in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, with an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 members.

The experts emphasized that IS remains the most serious terrorist threat in Afghanistan today. Although the group has suffered significant losses in leadership and reduced activity in Syria and Iraq, the experts warn about the risk of its resurgence.

According to the panel's report to the UN Security Council, IS has adapted its strategy by embedding itself within local populations and cautiously selecting battles to minimize losses while rebuilding and recruiting members from camps in northeastern Syria and vulnerable communities in neighboring countries.The group declared a self-proclaimed caliphate in 2014, which was subsequently defeated in Iraq in 2017.

However, sleeper cells still pose a threat in both countries. Despite sustained efforts in counter-terrorism operations, IS continues to command between 5,000 and 7,000 members, predominantly fighters, across Iraq and Syria, deliberately reducing its attacks to facilitate recruitment and reorganization.

The panel also highlighted the dire conditions and significant humanitarian hardship faced by approximately 55,000 individuals with alleged links or family ties to IS living in the al-Hol and Roj camps in northeast Syria, including over 11,800 Iraqis and nearly 16,000 Syrians. Moreover, the experts quoted an unnamed country claiming that IS continues to recruit children through its Cubs of the Caliphate program in the overcrowded al-Hol camp.

Additionally, more than 850 boys, some as young as 10, are in detention and rehabilitation centers in the region. In Afghanistan, UN members assess that the Islamic State group poses the most serious terrorist threat to the country and the wider region. The experts estimate that IS currently has 4,000 to 6,000 fighters and family members in Afghanistan, with reports suggesting an increase in operational capabilities.

Moving to Mozambique, the panel noted that the deployment of regional forces in Cabo Delgado province has disrupted the IS affiliate, reducing its male fighters with battlefield experience to an estimated 180-220, down from 280 previously. However, the experts expressed concern about the potential exploitation of political violence and instability by terrorist groups like IS in conflict-stricken Sudan in Africa.

They also highlighted the increased autonomy of the IS affiliate in the Sahel region, which has played a significant role in escalating violence alongside other terrorist groups. Mali has experienced a rise in IS attacks on multiple fronts, with Burkina Faso and Niger also being targeted, albeit to a lesser extent.

The report overall emphasizes the dynamic nature of the threat, even with the setbacks IS has faced. It underscores the importance of sustained efforts in countering the group's activities and highlights the need for continued international cooperation to combat the persistent and evolving threat posed by the Islamic State.