High Stakes: Maldives Election Puts India-China Power Play on the Line

Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's close ties with India have taken center stage in the run-off election campaign, with opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu vowing to protect the country's independence and sovereignty. In the first round of the presidential polls, Muizzu secured the highest vote share, while Solih trailed behind.

The election outcome will also determine if the country switches to a parliamentary system of governance. India has been closely watching the election to gauge the continuity of its ties with the Maldives. Muizzu's campaign promise to prioritize the Maldives' independence and challenge Solih's "India first" foreign policy aligns with the opposition's "India Out" campaign led by former President Abdulla Yameen.

However, Solih's foreign minister rejects the opposition's claims of an increased Indian military presence and accuses them of spreading lies. The election is seen as crucial for India and China, as both countries vie for geopolitical influence in the region.

During Yameen's presidency, the Maldives leaned towards China, becoming a member of its Belt and Road Initiative and signing a free trade agreement. However, Solih's victory in 2018 saw the country renew its ties with India. If Solih were to lose the election, it could potentially nullify India's efforts to increase its influence in the Maldives and provide an opportunity for China to emerge as the country's primary benefactor. The outcome of the election will have significant implications for both India and China's presence in the Indian Ocean region.