Gerasimov Remains Russia's Top Commander in Ukraine Following Failed Mutiny

 Russia’s top military commander in Ukraine Valery Gerasimov on Monday made his first public appearance following the failed mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, last month. Gerasimov was seen in a Russian Defense Ministry video giving instructions to subordinates on how to respond to increased missile attacks from Ukraine on Russian territory and annexed Crimea. The video came after reports that Gerasimov had been dismissed due to the fallout of Wagner’s June 24 mutiny.

This was seen as a demand by Prigozhin for the dismissal of Gerasimov, Sergei Shoigu, and other Kremlin officials. However, the appearance of both Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu after the armed revolt suggests that Putin disregarded Prigozhin’s demands. Gerasimov was appointed as Russia’s top commander in Ukraine in January. His predecessor, General Sergei Surovikin, has not been seen in public since Prigozhin agreed with the Kremlin to end his rebellion in exchange for dropped mutiny charges. Recent media reports have suggested that Surovikin was aware of Wagner’s mutiny plans and may have been arrested or held for questioning.

Monday’s Defense Ministry video showed Surovikin’s deputy Viktor Afzalov reporting to Gerasimov on the Russian Aerospace Forces by video link. Surovikin was not present at the meeting, though the faces of other participants — besides Afzalov's — were blurred out. The video showed Gerasimov instructing his subordinates to continue their work to identify the storage and launch sites of missiles and other weapons in order to plan preemptive attacks.

Gerasimov’s appearance after the failed mutiny of Prigozhin, and his role in responding to the Ukrainian missile attacks, suggest that he remains Russia’s top commander in Ukraine despite the allegations of Surovikin’s involvement in the mutiny. Putin’s refusal to dismiss Gerasimov and Shoigu, and the continued absence of Surovikin, indicate that the Kremlin is taking the incident seriously. It remains to be seen how the situation will develop in the coming weeks and months.