Crucial Showdown: Biden Administration Takes on China in High-Stakes Nuclear Arms Control Talks

The Biden administration is gearing up for a crucial discussion with China on nuclear arms control, a move aimed at preventing a three-way arms race between the United States, China, and Russia. This meeting, scheduled for Monday, marks the first of its kind between the two countries since the Obama administration. Its primary focus will be on reducing the risk of miscalculation, according to U.S. officials. China's Foreign Ministry announced that discussions on arms control and non-proliferation would take place in the days ahead, along with separate talks on maritime affairs and other matters. The arms talks will be led by Mallory Stewart, a senior State Department official, and Sun Xiaobo, the head of China's Foreign Ministry arms-control department.

While the U.S. and Chinese leaders have expressed their mutual interest in addressing strategic stability concerns related to Beijing's nuclear weapons build-up, the White House has clarified that these discussions will not resemble formal arms reduction talks held with Russia. U.S. officials have expressed frustration over China's lack of enthusiasm for discussing measures to reduce nuclear weapons risks. China currently possesses over 500 operational nuclear warheads, a number predicted to surpass 1,000 by 2030, according to the Pentagon.

However, Beijing has consistently argued that the U.S. already maintains a significantly larger arsenal. This stark contrast in numbers underscores the urgency of the upcoming talks and the need for transparency regarding each country's nuclear doctrines. The timing of the arms talks is critical, taking place ahead of a potential meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November. Details surrounding this meeting have yet to be finalized, but it is clear that the discussions on arms control will play a vital role in shaping the agenda. In recent months, there has been a flurry of diplomatic engagements between China and the U.S., largely at the request of Washington, in an effort to salvage and improve the deteriorating relationship between the two countries.

The breakdown of ties escalated following the U.S. downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon over American territory in February. Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, believes that the long-overdue arms talks will likely focus on establishing greater transparency surrounding each nation's nuclear doctrines and enhancing crisis communication channels. However, he warns against expecting immediate breakthroughs, emphasizing that progress will require time and give-and-take from both sides.